Dow Jones Industrial Average to swap Dow Inc. in for DowDuPont

Dow Inc. will replace DowDuPont in the Dow Jones Industrial Average following the chemical corporation's breakup into three smaller companies, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Tuesday.

The rearrangement of the widely followed blue-chip index of 30 companies would happen on April 2 before the U.S. stock market opens, S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a statement.

DowDuPont, formed by the $130 billion merger of chemical giants Dow Chemical and DuPont in 2017, is in the process of splitting itself up into three companies called Dow, DuPont and Corteva Agriscience.

Dow Inc. will also join the S&P 500 on April 2, replacing Brighthouse Financial, S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a separate statement.

Replacing DowDuPont with Dow will maintain the benchmark's exposure to the materials sector, and its price weight within the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be similar to DowDuPont's before its breakup, S&P Dow Jones Indices said.

Known for its inclusion of large U.S. companies as well as its relatively few members compared to other barometers, the Dow has changed components roughly every two years over the past 20 years. The most recent such move came last June, when longtime member General Electric was replaced by Walgreens Boots Alliance.

Here are the biggest analyst calls of the day: Best Buy, Chipotle, Sherwin-Williams & more

Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday:

Oppenheimer upgraded Best Buy to 'outperform' from 'perform'

Oppenheimer upgraded the stock based on a more upbeat market narrative and significant company transformation.

"We are lifting our rating on Best Buy to Outperform and establishing a 12-18 month price target of $86 for shares... Over the past few years, under the direction of new senior leadership, Best Buy has undergone a significant transformation, whereby it evolved from a traditional chain of large-format superstores to one of retail's preeminent omni-channel operators, which utilizes digital well as a means to connect better with consumers and enhance underlying disciplines... The market narrative on BBY is now more upbeat... That said, we believe investors are still not fully embracing improved sales and EPS power of Best Buy, particularly as new drivers for the company are beginning to emerge..."

J.P. Morgan downgraded Sherwin-Williams to 'neutral' from 'overweight'

J.P. Morgan downgraded Sherwin-Williams based on valuation and volume trends not moving in favor of the company.

"The trajectory of the long-term growth rate expectation for the domestic housing market typically begins to flatten with interest rate inflation; however, the Fed seems to be in a wait-and-see mode for now... Uncertainties over a slower growing economy also tend to favor investments in less cyclical equities.... We think that volume trends in the first quarter of 2019 are not moving in favor of Sherwin-Williams.... The strong January Paint Store trends from a backlog of paint contractor work did not continue into February.... We think demand trends in March, typically the strongest month of the quarter, may not be appreciably higher with wet weather likely a factor.... Moreover, higher cost inventories built in 4Q:18 are still to be worked through.... We lower our 1Q:19 EPS estimate for Sherwin-Williams from $3.96 to $3.80. Our 2019 EPS forecast is $21.95 (previously $22.10)... Our 2020 EPS projection is $25.75... We think there may be more favorable entry points into SHW shares as the magnitude of the 1Q:19 headwinds become clearer... Our general orientation is to think that raw material prices for paint and coatings companies will be lower in 2H:19 compared to 2018, and we estimate that at least an ~$80m raw material benefit may accrue to SHW's EBITDA in the back half of 2019..."

J.P. Morgan upgraded Lumentum to 'overweight' from 'neutral'

J.P. Morgan upgraded the laser maker on iPhone volume stabilization.

"We are upgrading shares of Lumentum on the combination of: 1) solid outlook for the telecom business on the back of strong growth led by 5G investments; 2) upside to synergy targets relative to recent acquisition of Oclaro; and 3) limited downside risk relative to iPhone volume expectations, which has been a key driver of sentiment on the shares... We are raising our FY19E, FY20E, and FY21E EPS estimates by +3%, +12%, and +13%, respectively, which implies upside of +2%, +2%, and +4% relative to consensus estimates, largely driven by greater than anticipated synergies from the Oclaro acquisition.... We raise our December 2019 price target to $65 (implying +25%upside to current prices) vs. $50 prior, led by our higher earnings estimates and target P/E multiple of 12.0x vs. 10.0x prior to reflect the lower concerns we have relative to customer concentration with Apple following a stabilization in the iPhone shipment outlook, which should drive focus back to strong fundamentals in the core business..."

Wedbush upgraded Chipotle to 'neutral' from 'underperform'

Wedbush upgraded Chipotle saying the company now had a lack of negative catalysts.

"Checks suggest Q1 SSS growth in-line with current expectations....Given health of near-term trends, we can no longer describe drivers of accelerating 2-year transaction growth in 2019 as purely theoretical....No longer see risk to unit-level margin expectations....We do believe G&A guidance remains a risk....Increasing our 2019 EPS estimate to $12.28 from $12.12 on a slightly lower labor expense assumption..."

Stephens initiated SurveyMonkey as 'overweight'

Stephens initiated the online survey maker as overweight on its ability to elevate investor perceptions and its strong growth prospects.

"We are initiating coverage on SVMK Inc. and giving shares an overweight (Vol.) rating and a $20 twelve month price target... The crux of our thesis is that SurveyMonkey has the potential to accelerate growth to 20%+ and that the company will derive more and more of its revenues from larger, stickier enterprise contracts... We believe that these dynamics will help shift some investors' perceptions that this is more of a churn-prone consumer internet business and elevate it to the position as an enterprise SaaS company... This transformation won't happen overnight, but we believe the current 7x EV/NTM revenue multiple provides a good entry point for investors given the peer group of 20%-type SaaS companies trades at 10x NTM revenues..."

Longbow upgraded Stanley Black & Decker to 'buy' from 'neutral'

Longbow said the Craftsman brand presents great growth opportunity for the company.

"We are upgrading SWK to BUY in conjunction with our analysis of its opportunity with Craftsman through 2022. SWK's current valuation discount to the SP500 is in contrast to the EPS growth opportunity (including the Craftsman brand) as outlined in this report... This SWK report evaluates the purchase of the Craftsman brand and the prospects for its contribution to growth through 2022... Our detailed proforma analysis projects brand and category-driven organic growth across the three primary Craftsman product categories, along with the legacy SWK products, to evaluate the impact to revenue, EBIT and EPS relative to the SWK "Vision 2022" plan....We believe the SWK investment in Craftsman and associated initiatives are capable of driving $1.1+ billion of 2022 revenue and $0.94 in incremental adjusted EPS... Along with anticipated 2022 Flexvolt revenue of $400+ mm and core tools & storage sales of $10.5 billion, we view SWK as well-positioned at this point to hit their targeted $12-14 billion of 2022 Tools & Storage revenue..."

Wedbush downgraded Booking Holdings to 'neutral' from 'outperform'

Wedbush said Europe will be a liability on the company in the future. Booking Holdings operates travel sites such as Priceline.com, Booking.com, and Kayak.com.

"Our previous investment thesis on BKNG centered on the company's dominant position in Europe, and the superior profits that go hand in hand with such a position. While we continue to believe in the favorability of European OTA exposure in the long term, this exposure is likely to represent a liability during 2019, as it is could amplify both earnings revision risk and multiple compression risk..."

Wedbush downgraded Lululemon to 'neutral' from 'outperform'

Wedbush said the company has less near-term upside ahead.

"While we continue to see LULU as best in class among specialty retailers, we are moving to the sidelines in anticipation of potentially less margin upside ahead, based on insights from our proprietary data products... Wedbush Big Data, though historically erring on the low side, signals potentially less margin upside ahead, and now forecasts gross margin below street estimates, drawing on data points including assortment, average price, and average full price ticket value... According to our data products, revenue looks mixed as prior top-line strength showcased in LULU's holiday beat and raise looks to be softening, with big data now signaling revenue running in-line with consensus, while Wedbush Search data, forecasts 4Q revenue growth of 19.03%, below consensus for 23.82%... We see measured guidance as likely, as a turbulent February likely hits LULU just as hard as the rest of retail, which may be taken less positively by investors given the notable growth metrics and margin expansion LULU has typically posted in recent quarters..."

Wall Street's Art Hogan sees pain lurking in popular defensive play

Art Hogan is concerned that jitters over an economic slowdown are driving investors to a group with little potential for gains.

According to the National Securities chief market strategist, utilities are shaping up to be a poor choice as a defensive strategy.

"I get nervous when they trade at the multiples they're trading at right now," Hogan said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

Utilities are trading at 18.65 times earnings, just under its all-time high of 19.17 times earnings in 2017. The sector's dividend yield of 3.42 percent is considered historically low, too.

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund, an ETF that tracks the group, has risen 11 percent this year and over the past 12 months by 20 percent versus 8 percent for the broader S&P 500 index.

That demand for utilities is worrisome to Hogan.

"Their dividend yield is actually too low for an entry point," he said. "I'd be careful with the valuations."

Yet he understands why many investors think it's necessary to run to safe havens like utilities. Hogan, who has been largely optimistic on stocks since the Great Recession, won't brand himself a bull right now. He contends there are too many risks, including the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and the potential for slower economic data.

Hogan believes he has a better strategy for investors who want to protect their portfolios: technology.

"We've had periods of time when technology is defensive because of the cash flow. 2016 was that time again. And, I don't think that's a bad idea," Hogan said.

The tech sector is one of Hogan's top picks for 2019, along with health care and industrials. He has a 2,890 year-end price target on the S&P 500, a gain of 3 percent based on Monday's close.

show chapters Trade headwinds is top risk facing market, former long-time bull Art Hogan says    17 Hours Ago | 04:43 Disclaimer

The Yield Curve Just Inverted, Putting The Chance Of A Recession At 30%

&l;p&g;&l;img class=&q;dam-image bloomberg size-large wp-image-43353730&q; src=&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/dam/imageserve/43353730/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q; data-height=&q;640&q; data-width=&q;960&q;&g; Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S.Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The interest rate on the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond just fell below the rate on the 3-month bill in response to the &l;a href=&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2019/03/20/what-the-feds-march-decision-means-for-markets/#55aa56fee41c&q;&g;Fed&s;s March announcement&l;/a&g;. This is called &l;a href=&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2018/06/01/how-the-bond-market-reliably-signals-recessions/&q;&g;yield curve inversion&l;/a&g; as defined by&a;nbsp;&l;span&g;Arturo Estrella and Frederic Mishkin. It implies a 25-30% probability of a recession on a 12-month view. Their research can be found&a;nbsp;&l;a href=&q;https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=720026113081006107123024113083097102051014069017088036022085101104020121052036127005021126011107077099022093115007057071073001069124085097091001025071013024095022085099007126091124010020109118113112004125080082023006024007073116108003086004068&a;amp;EXT=pdf&q; target=&q;_blank&q; rel=&q;nofollow noopener noreferrer&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;here&l;/a&g;.&l;/span&g;

As economic relationships go, the yield curve has a good track record. You can see the data below going back to 1982. Per the chart, using this series over recent history the yield curve inverts before a recession reliably with no false positives. An impressive record. The blue line shows the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates. The black line is the zero bound. The shaded grey periods are historical recessions. Note that there is a lagged relationship here, recession historically occurs 6-18 month after inversion. So today&s;s yield curve suggests a fair chance of a 2019-2020 recession.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-2011&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/simonmoore/files/2019/03/fredgraph.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;470&q; data-width=&q;1168&q;&g; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity

&l;strong&g;Risks Of Interpretation&l;/strong&g;

Nonetheless, there are some &l;a href=&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2018/12/04/five-perspectives-on-the-yield-curve-as-a-recession-signal/&q;&g;risks with this approach&l;/a&g;. The first is we&s;re looking at a limited run of data. There are only a few&a;nbsp;decades in the sample and a handful of recessions. We&s;re making a forecast here based on less than ten recessionary events per the initial research and subsequent out-of-sample data. Plus there are countless pieces of economic data out there. Combining two of them and creating a good recession forecast is possibly due to data mining. For example &l;a href=&q;http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;Tyler Vigen&s;s site&l;/a&g;&a;nbsp;illustrates the problem&a;nbsp;showing how correlations can be found between many things that have little basis in reality, such as an apparently strong relationship between mozzarella cheese consumption and sociology degrees. So even though the yield curve relationship looks robust, it has been plucked from hundreds of other relationships that could exist, but don&s;t look as meaningful. The human brain is adept at creating patterns where none exist.

Also, a 25-30% chance of recession is not that high. Going back from 1960 to 2018&a;nbsp;we have 59 years of data. We&s;ve had U.S. recessions during 16 of those years. So even before any more sophisticated forecasting methods, your chance of being in a recession in any given year are 27%. There&s;s some auto-correlation there too, as recession years come in clusters, but still, saying the chance of recession coming within a year or so is around one in four isn&s;t that different from what history tells us regardless of what the economy is doing. Of course, even at a 30% probability the chances are roughly twice as&a;nbsp;high that a recession does not occur.

Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has a key target of avoiding a recession in order to maintain full employment. This one of their key policy targets. The Fed are quite capable of learning. The increasing emphasis on the yield curve has not gone unnoticed by the Fed. In fact, the initial research here was published by the New York Fed itself. So unlike in the past, the Fed may be able to take corrective action, which was exactly was Chairman Powell was looking to stress in the &l;a href=&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2019/03/20/what-the-feds-march-decision-means-for-markets/&q;&g;Fed&s;s March meeting&l;/a&g; release. The Fed&s;s challenge is obvious but not simple, a few quarters ago the markets were spooked by a &l;a href=&q;http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2018/11/29/what-to-expect-from-the-fed-in-2019/&q;&g;potential stack of rate hikes in 2019&l;/a&g; that could risk recession, so the Fed changed course. Yet, in doing so they have helped create an inverted yield curve&a;nbsp;introducing&a;nbsp;another set of recessionary fears.

However, the risk here is the markets are capable of learning too, and there is some evidence that recessions are self-fulfilling, meaning that if enough decision makers expect a recession they may then take the very actions actions, such as temporarily cutting back on spending, that cause a recession to happen. In that light,&a;nbsp;yield curve inversion&a;nbsp;gaining more attention is&a;nbsp;bad news if it causes people to anticipate a recession, which then makes one more likely.

So yield curve inversion is not a positive sign for markets, but we may be overstating its importance. Also if the indicator is to be believed, we should watch out not just for inversion, but when the 3-month yield falls 1% or more below then 10-year yield, then our confidence in a recession around the corner should be quite a bit higher.&l;/p&g;

Here are the biggest analyst calls of the day: Biogen, Apple, Micron, & more

Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Thursday:

William Blair downgrading Biogen to 'market perform' from 'outperform'

William Blair downgraded Biogen because the Aducanumab trials were being discontinued due to an interim futility analysis determining the trials were unlikely to meet the primary endpoints.

"Before the markets opened on Thursday, March 21, Biogen announced the Phase III aducanumab trials were being discontinued due to an interim futility analysis determining the trials were unlikely to meet the primary endpoints... Aducanumab now joins a long list of Alzheimer's therapies that have failed to change the course of the disease, particularly those targeting beta-amyloid... Given the potential downside in Biogen's base business, including increased competition in the multiple sclerosis space, potential IPR challenge of Tecfidera's '514 patent, and impending competition in the spinal muscular atrophy market, we see potential for additional downside following the failure of Biogen's most important Phase III asset... We assume the stock will trade at a compressed multiple of roughly 8 to 10 times earnings based on the poor growth profile, and therefore at a range of $230 to $270 based on our 2019 EPS estimate of $27.58. Thus, we are downgrading shares to Market Perform...."

Needham upgrading Apple to 'strong buy' from 'buy'

Needham upgraded Apple on its valuation survey plus network effects.

"Upgrading AAPL to Strong Buy (from Buy) and raising our price target to $225 (from $180) owing to: a) AAPL's ecosystem value upside; b)conclusions from our proprietary survey data; c) content services AAPL will announce Monday; and d) AAPL's strong Network Effects..."

Citi raising price target on Apple to $220 from $170

Citi is staying positive on Apple and expects the company to raise its dividend and increase its buyback authorization.

"Despite dour sell side sentiment on Apple shares, we reiterate our Buy rating and we are also increasing our target price to $220 (market multiple shifts and lower discount) from $170 previously... We expect Apple to raise its dividend in April and increase its buyback authorization by another $100 billion while generating an estimated $60-65 billion of free cash flow each year as we look ahead... From a holdings perspective, Apple shares are no longer in the SP500 Growth Index Funds and have completely transitioned to being represented in the Value Index Fund yet in our marketing meetings, many growth investors have a negative view on the shares with short interest as a % of free float the highest it has ever been over the past 2 years...."

Goldman Sachs upgrading Qorvo to 'buy' from 'neutral'

Goldman Sachs upgraded Qorvo due to its smartphone stabilization, growing 5G infrastructure business, and margin expansion at a compelling valuation.

"We upgrade QRVO to Buy from Neutral with an updated 12-month price target of $79 which represents 14% potential upside. ..The five key pillars supporting our constructive view are, 1) smartphone unit stabilization: while we are not quite out of the woods yet, we are beginning to see early signs of smartphone unit stabilization with near-term upside in China offsetting marginal weakness at Apple, per our checks, 2) strength in 5G infrastructure: recent checks at Mobile World Congress suggest that 5G base station deployments are being pulled in and that strength is sustainable through 2020/2021 (note QRVO's base station business accounts for ~30% of Infrastructure and Defense Products segment sales or ~10% of total sales), 3) margin expansion opportunity: we believe management has room to improve gross margins and we note on their most recent earnings call they guided FY4Q (March) non GAAP gross margins to 47% (or 170bps below Street expectations ahead of the call) and FY1Q (June) to "below 46%". Importantly, we believe the ongoing restructuring initiatives (phased closure of Florida SAW filter facility+ delayed ramp of Farmers Branch BAW filter facility) coupled with other cost-cutting measures (introduction of Micro-BAW as well as improved dicing techniques) and better business mix stemming from above-average growth in the IDP business will drive an expansion in margins over the next 12-24 months, 4) robust FCF generation: we see FCF generation improving further in FY20/21 under the assumption that operating margins improve, working capital management remains disciplined and capex intensity is reduced, 5) compelling valuation: we believe current valuation multiples under-appreciate the top- and bottom-line growth potential of the company..."

Citi downgrading Micron to 'sell' from 'neutral'

Citi says Micron shares and estimates will remain under pressure after its earnings report.

"Yesterday after the close, Micron reported weak results and guided well below Consensus due to the memory crash and cut capex... While these are appropriate steps, we believe estimates and the stock should remain under pressure due to the DRAM crash... We lower estimates and downgrade to Sell.."

PiperJaffray upgrading ConocoPhillips to 'overweight' from 'neutral'

PiperJaffray says ConocoPhillips year to date performance reflects the spending risk

"COP had stellar performance in '18, but has lagged both IOC and large cap E&P peer averages YTD... We believe this is largely a function of concern over major project FIDs being contemplated this year... Project sanctions could put upward pressure on capital spending in an environment when investors are demanding discipline... That said, our modeling conservatively contemplates increased spending into '20, yet still reflects strong free cash generation at $60/Brent... Given the under performance and our conservative commodity assumptions ($60/Brent in '19/'20), we see ample upside to our target of $75/share (unchanged) and upgrade to Overweight... For context, $65/Brent would likely translate into a value of ~$80/share..."

Goldman Sachs adding Arista Networks to the 'conviction buy list'

Goldman Sachs sees significant upside potential to the stock and says Arista is one of the highest EPS growth profiles in its coverage.

"We add Arista to the Americas Conviction List and reiterate our Buy rating as we see significant upside potential to consensus expectations driven by Arista's expansion into campus switching... Arista posted 31% topline growth in 2018 and management expressed comfort with the Street's 23% revenue growth forecast for 2019... With the stock trading at 31X our CY19E EPS, we believe investors are focused on the sustainability of 20%+ revenue growth in 2020-2021 and consensus appears to be modeling a deceleration to 18% by 2021... We believe Arista can deliver 23% or better revenue growth in 2020 and 2021 driven by its campus expansion representing 4%/6% of revenues, respectively, on what we view as relatively conservative assumptions... We continue to expect Arista to maintain its leading position in the data center switching market with solid potential for growth in enterprise and little impact from 400G in 2019/20... With one of the highest EPS growth profiles in our coverage, we see Arista's valuation as being at a discount to peers on a growth adjusted basis (1.3X PEG multiple vs. peer average 1.5X) and expect the stock to re-rate higher...We raise our 12-month price target to $360 from $300..."

Credit Suisse initiating Fox Corporation as 'outperform'

Credit Suisse says due to pricing power, the company will post the fastest revenue and EBITDA growth in media over the coming years.

"We expect accretive deployment of Fox's prodigious FCF (15 year tax shield, low capex, low working capital), primarily via share repurchases and TV station M&A... Despite a slow CY19 for Cable Network affiliate revenue growth (CSe +3.5%), we expect Fox will post the fastest revenue and EBITDA growth in Media the next few years, due to having pricing power over distributors and ~50% of its renewals the next two years, pus continued rapid Broadcast retransmission growth (~16% 3-year CAGR), the 2020 election cycle and potential cost efficiencies as they right size this new company... Of note, Fox's focus on news and sports moderates secular challenges, Fox has long-term sports contracts and is well-positioned for its NFL renewal, and is the least complex media company..."

Boeing Pensioners And Shareholders Contemplate The Unthinkable

&l;p&g;&l;img class=&q;dam-image ap size-large wp-image-9d754099fa084beea85149cd62d898b3&q; src=&q;https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/dam/imageserve/9d754099fa084beea85149cd62d898b3/960x0.jpg?fit=scale&q; data-height=&q;640&q; data-width=&q;960&q;&g; Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg

Since an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max jet crashed last weekend, Boeing pensioners, many of whom retired with large holdings of Boeing stock, have been asking me whether they should sell. While&a;nbsp;it&s;s uncomfortable to talk about the investment implications of a tragedy like this, for all those who are desperately wondering what to do, I turned to Wayne Himelsein, one of my managers, for guidance because his quantitative approach takes emotions out of the equation.

&l;strong&g;Ken Kam&l;/strong&g;: Wayne, many Boeing retirees have large holdings of Boeing stock and after reading my articles about &l;a href=&q;https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2018/11/16/ge-pensioners-and-stockholders-contemplate-the-unthinkable/&q;&g;GE retirees and pensioners&l;/a&g;, they wonder if they are about to go down the same path.

&l;strong&g;Wayne Himelsein&l;/strong&g;: I think they have good reason to worry. There is tremendous uncertainty, more so ambiguity, of the outcome. If in fact there is a problem with the Boeing 737 Max jet, the resulting recalls and lawsuits could be worse for Boeing shareholders than GE&s;s&a;nbsp;problems have been for their retirees and shareholders.

&l;strong&g;Kam&l;/strong&g;: So&a;nbsp;how do you even begin&a;nbsp;to evaluate a position with such a wide spectrum of possible outcomes? This seems less a quantitative measure, which is how you tend to&a;nbsp;assess stocks.

&l;strong&g;Himelsein&l;/strong&g;: You are definitely right about my style of measurement, but as much as this seems like a giant judgment call, there is actually some quantitative analysis one can do to sharpen the estimate.

High level, the major underlying premise of all quantitative analysis is that in viewing price behavior, one is actually viewing the consensus opinion of all market participants. Every single one of the individual buy/sell decisions, and reasons for those decisions, aggregate to price movement, and therefore, can tell us something about mass consensus.

More interestingly, there has even been shown to be a resulting &a;ldquo;mass behavior&a;rdquo; that emerges, where the group behaves, to a degree, with more insight than the sum of individuals. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

&l;strong&g;Kam&l;/strong&g;: You&a;rsquo;re saying that even in areas of tremendous variability, the crowd behavior can reveal insight?

&l;strong&g;Himelsein&l;/strong&g;: Precisely. In fact, one of the grandfathers of markets, John Maynard Keynes, famously described stocks as a &a;ldquo;beauty contest,&a;rdquo; wherein they should be evaluated not on what people think they are worth (their fundamental value), but rather on what we think everyone else thinks they&a;rsquo;re worth!

Conceptually, it does not matter how good your own analysis is, if the market disagrees, you lose. But when we use our powers of observation to anticipate what &a;ldquo;the rest&a;rdquo; believe, we stand a better chance of winning. Amazingly, we actually see this being the case when the emergent phenomenon of momentum occurs. Stocks with momentum will trend far longer than most would assume. The beauty contest winners are adored far after the contest ends.

&l;strong&g;Kam&l;/strong&g;: I like that way of thinking. So what does your view of the mass consensus tell you about Boeing?

&l;strong&g;Himelsein&l;/strong&g;: What we immediately see, in looking at the price behavior, aka market participants en mass, is that Boeing is not likely to collapse on the heels of this disaster. Yes, it fell a fair amount, but the highlight is how it hit the brakes, how the fall was halted in such a specific and well-defined location.

In Oct 2016, Boeing broke out into a powerful trend after spending many years doing not so much. It ran aggressively, more than doubling over the course of the next year and change, to eventually form a ceiling around Jan of 2018. I say a ceiling because the early 2018 level was not really broken until Feb of 2019, when it leaped to new heights after just over a year of moving sideways, aka consolidating.

&l;strong&g;Kam&l;/strong&g;: I see that Boeing took off to new heights in February. Before the disaster hit, it looked like it was heading straight up and not looking back. But what now?

&l;strong&g;Himelsein&l;/strong&g;: What we see at the moment of disaster is a large gap down, a far lower price that gave nobody time to exit their position, or to even consider what to do next. But it stopped, on a profoundly perfect dime; the ceiling of the year 2018.

In other words, the ceiling that we had all become well accustomed to over the prior year as marking the end of the prior aggressive run, the ceiling that we may have gotten frustrated with during more than a year-long wait to see if the stock would rise further, now became the floor. The consolidation held.

&l;strong&g;Kam&l;/strong&g;: That is definitely interesting. As bad as the disaster felt for Boeing, the stock still went to a comfortable spot, and not further. What do you make of this?

&l;strong&g;Himelsein&l;/strong&g;: It&a;rsquo;s not necessarily what I make of it, it&a;rsquo;s what the crowd has made of it. The votes are in, and the consensus is not overwhelmingly concerned with the future of Boeing. And I, a single market participant, humbled by the mass of the crowd, see that confidence. I conclude that Boeing, at this comfortable level, is a buying opportunity.

What the consensus seems to believe is a positive on both sides of the coin; if Boeing is not at fault for any mistakes in the build of their new plane, and it is mere coincidence, the stock will likely explode to the upside, reaching the sky faster than their own jumbo jets.

And if turns out that it is some fault of their design or build, the consensus is that the repercussions are manageable. That Boeing can fix and move on, more so, can handle the backlash.

If there were more fear, the stock would show it. Of course, anything can happen, and this is certainly more of an unknown than many other clear cut picks, but as a betting man, leaning on favorable odds, I&a;rsquo;d get on board Boeing before the doors close and it takes off.

&l;strong&g;My Take&l;/strong&g;: If Boeing is more than 10% of your portfolio, it is more than any of my managers, including Wayne, would recommend. However, given Wayne&s;s analysis, I don&s;t think there is an urgent need to sell at this time.

If you have enough to live on comfortably without your Boeing stock, then you can afford to maintain an oversized position in its shares -- though I don&s;t recommend it.

&l;p class=&q;tweet_line&q;&g;If your retirement depends on Boeing turning around, it&s;s time to consider making some changes.&l;/p&g;

Wayne Himelsein&s;s Logica Focus Fund (LFF) has an 18+ year track record that extends through 2 market crashes, numerous corrections, and sector rotations. Over that period, Wayne&s;s model averaged 11.86% a year which compares well to the S&a;amp;P 500&s;s 5.79% return for the same period.

To be notified when Wayne updates his views, &l;a href=&q;https://paths.marketocracy.com/lists/?p=subscribe&a;amp;id=24&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;click here&l;/a&g;. To be notified when I write about specific stocks my top managers cover &l;a href=&q;https://paths.marketocracy.com/lists/?p=subscribe&a;amp;id=1&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;click here&l;/a&g;.&l;/p&g;

The Shopify Stock Bubble Can Only Keep Getting Bigger for so Long

I’ve been pretty hard on web store provider Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP), but investors, and the Shopify stock price, have ignored me. Since tech bottomed at Christmas, Shopify shares have risen from less than $130 to their March 13 opening bid of $202. That gives the company a market cap of $22.4 billion, on 2018 revenue of $1.07 billion.

Source: Shopify via Flickr

As far back as 2017 I predicted this would all end in tears, citing a report from short-sellers Citron Research that called Shopify a scam at $60 per share. More recently I noted its lack of operating cash flow and use in drop-ship scams. 

All this is still true. But it doesn’t disturb the bulls. One recent story calls Shopify a “virtual go-to destination for aspiring entrepreneurs and small businesses.”

Celebrity, Pot and Shopify Stock

Chief operating officer Harvey Finkelstein was recently on the TV, touting Shopify’s use by celebrities such as Kylie Jenner and Drake, but also hyping the software’s use by Canadian pot sellers.

Shopify now touts itself as a Software as a Service (SaaS) ecommerce platform, bragging about the success of merchants like Jenner without noting how little the company makes when one of its customers succeeds.

That’s because Shopify is like a casino, in that those big buildings aren’t built with money from winners. Shopify’s results are fueled by 20,000 app developers and agencies that are selling their tools to Shopify sellers. Shopify gets a fat 20% off the top from those sales.

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Inside the Numbers

For the quarter ending in December Shopify lost $12 million, 1 cent per share, on revenues of $343.8 million. The company’s press release noted this was 54% ahead of the previous year, making the loss irrelevant to the investment case.

Shopify divides revenue into “subscription solutions,” which involve use of the Shopify software, and “merchant solutions,” sales made through the app store. It’s the app store revenue that’s been growing fastest, rising 63% year over year from $129 million in the last quarter of 2017 to $210 million in the last quarter of 2018.

I like to look at cash flow, which was a positive $269 million for the year. But operating cash flow was just $9.3 million. The big number was $1.04 billion. That’s how much cash went on the books from the public offering. Shopify is rising on the money from its own investors.

Shopify’s release also details how its income flows. It shows 54% of what comes in is gross profit, with sales and marketing expenses representing 26% of revenue. A lot of Shopify’s money goes into finding new customers.

The initial reaction when the Shopify numbers came out last month was negative. Analysts were expecting $55 million in earnings. The company said it was “investing heavily” in augmented reality and virtual reality applications, but total investment in research was $67 million. The stock now trades above where it was before earnings.

The Bottom Line on Shopify Stock

I avoid going short on anything because it’s easy for bulls to hold shares from short sellers and drive a target’s price up. My favorite aphorism is that of the 19th century speculator Daniel Drew, who said of short sellers “He who sells what isn’t his’n, must buy it back or go to pris’n.” Drew ended his life broke.

On the other hand, I also avoid speculation for the sake of speculation. If you buy Shopify now, you’re paying over 20 times sales for a company without profits, most of whose cash flow comes from sale of its own stock.

I may be missing a profit rocket, but I say thanks but no thanks.

Dana Blankenhorn http://www.danablankenhorn.com is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies mentione

PHI Token Tops 24-Hour Volume of $152,808.00 (PHI)

PHI Token (CURRENCY:PHI) traded 0% lower against the U.S. dollar during the 24-hour period ending at 22:00 PM ET on March 14th. In the last week, PHI Token has traded 1.1% lower against the U.S. dollar. PHI Token has a total market capitalization of $910,047.00 and $152,808.00 worth of PHI Token was traded on exchanges in the last day. One PHI Token token can currently be bought for $0.16 or 0.00003971 BTC on major exchanges.

Here is how similar cryptocurrencies have performed in the last day:

Get PHI Token alerts: XRP (XRP) traded down 0.7% against the dollar and now trades at $0.31 or 0.00007955 BTC. Binance Coin (BNB) traded up 1% against the dollar and now trades at $15.15 or 0.00385387 BTC. Stellar (XLM) traded 1.4% lower against the dollar and now trades at $0.11 or 0.00002734 BTC. Tether (USDT) traded up 0% against the dollar and now trades at $1.01 or 0.00025722 BTC. TRON (TRX) traded 1.2% higher against the dollar and now trades at $0.0227 or 0.00000579 BTC. Bitcoin SV (BSV) traded up 0.7% against the dollar and now trades at $66.32 or 0.01686682 BTC. NEO (NEO) traded up 3.4% against the dollar and now trades at $9.30 or 0.00236494 BTC. VeChain (VET) traded up 0.5% against the dollar and now trades at $0.0052 or 0.00000132 BTC. Crypto.com Chain (CRO) traded up 3.3% against the dollar and now trades at $0.0657 or 0.00001671 BTC. Basic Attention Token (BAT) traded 2.9% higher against the dollar and now trades at $0.20 or 0.00004967 BTC.

About PHI Token

PHI Token’s genesis date was February 28th, 2018. PHI Token’s total supply is 13,636,660 tokens and its circulating supply is 5,828,254 tokens. PHI Token’s official Twitter account is @PhiToken and its Facebook page is accessible here. PHI Token’s official website is www.phitoken.io.

Buying and Selling PHI Token

PHI Token can be purchased on these cryptocurrency exchanges: Livecoin. It is usually not currently possible to buy alternative cryptocurrencies such as PHI Token directly using US dollars. Investors seeking to acquire PHI Token should first buy Ethereum or Bitcoin using an exchange that deals in US dollars such as Gemini, Changelly or Coinbase. Investors can then use their newly-acquired Ethereum or Bitcoin to buy PHI Token using one of the aforementioned exchanges.

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Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Expected to Announce Earnings of $0.89 Per Share

Wall Street analysts expect that Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG) will announce earnings per share of $0.89 for the current fiscal quarter, Zacks reports. Eight analysts have provided estimates for Harley-Davidson’s earnings, with the highest EPS estimate coming in at $1.11 and the lowest estimate coming in at $0.68. Harley-Davidson reported earnings of $1.03 per share during the same quarter last year, which indicates a negative year over year growth rate of 13.6%. The firm is expected to issue its next quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, April 23rd.

On average, analysts expect that Harley-Davidson will report full year earnings of $3.50 per share for the current fiscal year, with EPS estimates ranging from $2.93 to $3.80. For the next financial year, analysts forecast that the business will report earnings of $3.87 per share, with EPS estimates ranging from $3.52 to $4.12. Zacks’ earnings per share averages are an average based on a survey of sell-side research firms that that provide coverage for Harley-Davidson.

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Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) last released its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, January 29th. The company reported $0.17 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.33 by ($0.16). The firm had revenue of $955.63 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.05 billion. Harley-Davidson had a net margin of 9.30% and a return on equity of 30.76%. Harley-Davidson’s revenue for the quarter was up 91173.4% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the business posted $0.05 EPS.

Several equities analysts have recently weighed in on HOG shares. Zacks Investment Research lowered shares of Harley-Davidson from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Monday, January 21st. ValuEngine cut shares of Harley-Davidson from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Wednesday, January 2nd. KeyCorp restated a “hold” rating on shares of Harley-Davidson in a research note on Friday, February 22nd. Robert W. Baird dropped their price target on shares of Harley-Davidson from $50.00 to $45.00 and set a “neutral” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, December 13th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Co dropped their price target on shares of Harley-Davidson from $46.00 to $40.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, December 18th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eleven have given a hold rating and four have assigned a buy rating to the company. The stock currently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $44.00.

HOG stock traded down $0.53 during mid-day trading on Tuesday, hitting $36.81. 2,830,822 shares of the company were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 2,226,575. The company has a quick ratio of 1.09, a current ratio of 1.25 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.76. The company has a market capitalization of $6.13 billion, a PE ratio of 9.74, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.33 and a beta of 1.17. Harley-Davidson has a 1-year low of $31.36 and a 1-year high of $46.79.

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, March 29th. Stockholders of record on Thursday, March 14th will be paid a $0.375 dividend. This is an increase from Harley-Davidson’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.37. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, March 13th. This represents a $1.50 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 4.07%. Harley-Davidson’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is presently 39.15%.

Large investors have recently modified their holdings of the company. TD Capital Management LLC acquired a new position in shares of Harley-Davidson in the 4th quarter valued at approximately $25,000. PRW Wealth Management LLC bought a new stake in shares of Harley-Davidson during the 4th quarter worth approximately $26,000. Signet Investment Advisory Group Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Harley-Davidson during the 4th quarter worth approximately $29,000. Doyle Wealth Management bought a new stake in shares of Harley-Davidson during the 4th quarter worth approximately $34,000. Finally, Bruderman Asset Management LLC bought a new stake in Harley-Davidson in the 4th quarter valued at $37,000. Institutional investors own 91.57% of the company’s stock.

Harley-Davidson Company Profile

Harley-Davidson, Inc primarily manufactures and sells cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles & Related Products, and Financial Services. The Motorcycles & Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells at wholesale on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services.

Further Reading: How do taxes affect a CDs total return?

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Zacks: Arotech Co. (ARTX) Given $4.50 Consensus Target Price by Analysts

Arotech Co. (NASDAQ:ARTX) has earned a consensus broker rating score of 1.00 (Strong Buy) from the one brokers that provide coverage for the stock, Zacks Investment Research reports. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a strong buy recommendation.

Analysts have set a 12 month consensus price target of $4.50 for the company and are expecting that the company will post $0.06 EPS for the current quarter, according to Zacks. Zacks has also assigned Arotech an industry rank of 101 out of 255 based on the ratings given to related companies.

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Separately, Zacks Investment Research upgraded shares of Arotech from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $3.75 price target on the stock in a research note on Monday, January 28th.

Shares of ARTX traded up $0.02 during mid-day trading on Monday, reaching $3.04. The company had a trading volume of 141,564 shares, compared to its average volume of 118,789. Arotech has a 1-year low of $2.37 and a 1-year high of $4.15. The company has a current ratio of 2.07, a quick ratio of 1.68 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The company has a market cap of $79.99 million, a P/E ratio of 16.67 and a beta of 1.59.

Arotech (NASDAQ:ARTX) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, March 6th. The aerospace company reported $0.03 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.02 by $0.01. Arotech had a net margin of 5.72% and a return on equity of 7.38%. The company had revenue of $23.63 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $25.37 million. On average, equities analysts forecast that Arotech will post 0.2 EPS for the current year.

In other Arotech news, Chairman Jon B. Kutler acquired 9,984 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, March 8th. The stock was acquired at an average price of $3.01 per share, for a total transaction of $30,051.84. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. In the last quarter, insiders purchased 37,984 shares of company stock valued at $105,192. 9.40% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

A number of institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP raised its holdings in Arotech by 4.6% during the 4th quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 1,952,736 shares of the aerospace company’s stock worth $5,116,000 after purchasing an additional 86,679 shares during the last quarter. Shepherd Kaplan Krochuk LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Arotech during the 4th quarter worth approximately $54,000. Van ECK Associates Corp grew its position in shares of Arotech by 49.4% during the 4th quarter. Van ECK Associates Corp now owns 13,153 shares of the aerospace company’s stock worth $34,000 after buying an additional 4,352 shares during the period. Acadian Asset Management LLC grew its position in shares of Arotech by 31.7% during the 4th quarter. Acadian Asset Management LLC now owns 36,228 shares of the aerospace company’s stock worth $95,000 after buying an additional 8,729 shares during the period. Finally, LSV Asset Management acquired a new stake in shares of Arotech during the 4th quarter worth approximately $311,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 28.12% of the company’s stock.

Arotech Company Profile

Arotech Corporation provides defense and security products worldwide. The company's Training and Simulation division develops, manufactures, and markets multimedia and interactive digital solutions for engineering, use-of-force training, and operator training of military, law enforcement, security, emergency services, and other personnel.

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4 Reasons Why Investors Should Believe the 5G Hype

5G is the upcoming cellular wireless standard that promises to bring faster internet speeds to connected devices, bring more services online than ever before, and allow for new businesses and industries to thrive in new ways.

But will it really? Some investors are understandably skeptical of 5G. After all, companies often promote incremental changes in technology just so that they can sell more devices and services.

With 5G, however, there will be tangible differences between the new cellular networks and current 4G LTE ones. If you're skeptical that 5G is more than smoke and mirrors, these facts may help change your perspective.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. It's going to make Internet speeds exponentially faster than they are now

Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ) says that its 5G network will be up to 20 times faster than its current 4G LTE network.

This new standard will be a massive step forward, even more so than the jump from 3G to 4G, because 5G is also going to improve the rate at which devices communicate with towers (called latency speed). That means a smartphone will request and communicate with cell towers faster, enabling better wireless service than ever before.

2. Future tech is dependent on it

As great as it'll be to have faster internet speeds than we have now, 5G connectivity also matters because it's going to bring about new services and technologies that wouldn't be possible without it. For example, the vast Internet of Things industry will need faster and more reliable networks to bring about an autonomous vehicle future (eventually), industrial automation, and connected smart cities, which are only online in their infant stages right now.

5G will allow cities to launch smart city management technology -- like vehicle traffic sensors and smart electric grids -- that could save $160 billion in fuel costs and energy savings.

If 4G was about letting you stream HD movies on your phone, then 5G will be the standard that lets you stream those movies to your phone while you're riding through a smart city in a self-driving vehicle. It'll take years to get there, of course, but 5G will lay the groundwork to make it all possible.

3. The biggest tech companies are already working on 5G networks

The time for wireless carriers to stop talking about the potential of 5G and start building it is finally here. While it's still going to take a little while to get these new networks all set up, clear progress is already being made.

Verizon is spending $17 billion to $18 billion this year in capital expenditures, and most of that will go to getting its 5G network built, with a goal of having 5G in 30 cities by the end of the year. Sprint (NYSE:S) says it'll have 5G running in four cities this May, and AT&T (NYSE: T) plans to bring 5G to 21 cities by the end of the year as well.

And China Mobile (NYSE:CHL), the world's largest telecom, says it'll launch 5G commercially next year, as it begins to bring its 900 million subscribers to its upgraded network.

5G is expected to expand quickly once it goes live, and nearly 40% of the world's population will have access to 5G over the next five years according to Ericsson.

4. Chipmakers and telecoms have a lot of potential to benefit

The new 5G networks could help companies bring in as much as $619 billion in additional annual revenue by 2026. And for chipmakers, the 5G modem market could be worth up to $22.4 billion by that same year.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), the company that makes some of the best cellular wireless modems, recently revealed a 5G chip that's capable of 7 Gbps download speeds and 3 Gbps upload speeds. The company believes that its current lead in the 5G modem market will pay off soon, and management said on its recent earnings call that Qualcomm will be the "modem supplier of choice for the majority of the first wave of 5G devices."

Verizon believes the potential could be even higher, with its president Ronan Dunne saying that "By 2035, 5G will enable $12.3 trillion of global economic output and support 22 million jobs worldwide."

It's just going to take some time, so be patient

With all of these benefits coming from 5G, this new standard is worth waiting for. The key for investors right now is to find some companies that are making big moves in the space (keep your eye on Verizon and Qualcomm) and understand how they'll benefit. 5G is coming, devices will start hitting the market in significant ways next year, and cellular carriers will likely have large swaths of the U.S. population connected to 5G sometime in 2020. With all of 5G's potential, investors need to start taking notice of this tech opportunity now.

World Fuel Services Corp (INT) Forecasted to Post Q1 2020 Earnings of $0.56 Per Share

World Fuel Services Corp (NYSE:INT) – Equities research analysts at Seaport Global Securities issued their Q1 2020 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for World Fuel Services in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, March 7th. Seaport Global Securities analyst K. Sterling forecasts that the oil and gas company will earn $0.56 per share for the quarter. Seaport Global Securities currently has a “Buy” rating and a $40.00 target price on the stock. Seaport Global Securities also issued estimates for World Fuel Services’ Q2 2020 earnings at $0.60 EPS, Q3 2020 earnings at $0.80 EPS, Q4 2020 earnings at $0.74 EPS and FY2020 earnings at $2.70 EPS.

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Several other research analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Zacks Investment Research cut shares of World Fuel Services from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, March 1st. ValuEngine raised shares of World Fuel Services from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Monday, February 4th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, two have assigned a hold rating and one has given a buy rating to the company. The stock has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $31.67.

Shares of INT opened at $28.32 on Friday. World Fuel Services has a 12 month low of $19.78 and a 12 month high of $33.17. The firm has a market cap of $1.87 billion, a P/E ratio of 13.42, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.43 and a beta of 1.04. The company has a quick ratio of 1.11, a current ratio of 1.32 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40.

World Fuel Services (NYSE:INT) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, February 21st. The oil and gas company reported $0.50 EPS for the quarter, topping the Thomson Reuters’ consensus estimate of $0.45 by $0.05. World Fuel Services had a net margin of 0.32% and a return on equity of 8.05%. The business had revenue of $9.99 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $10.40 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $0.25 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue was up 12.6% on a year-over-year basis.

A number of large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in INT. Norges Bank bought a new position in World Fuel Services during the fourth quarter worth about $20,663,000. FMR LLC grew its stake in World Fuel Services by 19.0% during the second quarter. FMR LLC now owns 5,113,298 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $104,362,000 after buying an additional 817,879 shares in the last quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP boosted its stake in shares of World Fuel Services by 13.3% in the 3rd quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 5,439,333 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock valued at $150,563,000 after purchasing an additional 638,600 shares in the last quarter. Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund boosted its stake in shares of World Fuel Services by 2,041.0% in the 4th quarter. Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund now owns 578,070 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock valued at $27,000 after purchasing an additional 551,070 shares in the last quarter. Finally, BlackRock Inc. boosted its stake in shares of World Fuel Services by 5.3% in the 3rd quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 8,244,346 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock valued at $228,204,000 after purchasing an additional 417,982 shares in the last quarter. 89.69% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

About World Fuel Services

World Fuel Services Corporation engages in the distribution of fuel, and related products and services in the aviation, marine, and land transportation industries worldwide. Its Aviation segment offers fuel management; price risk management; ground handling; dispatch; and international trip planning services, such as flight plans, weather reports, and overflight permits.

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NeoPhotonics Corp (NPTN) Files 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended on December 31, 2018

NeoPhotonics Corp (NYSE:NPTN) files its latest 10-K with SEC for the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2018. NeoPhotonics Corp manufactures optoelectronic products that transmits, receives and switches high speed digital optical signals for communication networks. Its products are offered under High Speed Products, and Network Products and Solutions segments. NeoPhotonics Corp has a market cap of $299.781 million; its shares were traded at around $6.51 with and P/S ratio of 0.95.

For the last quarter NeoPhotonics Corp reported a revenue of $91.1 million, compared with the revenue of $76.87 million during the same period a year ago. For the latest fiscal year the company reported a revenue of $322.5 million, an increase of 10.1% from last year. For the last five years NeoPhotonics Corp had an average revenue growth rate of 2.1% a year.

The reported loss per diluted share was 97 cents for the year. The NeoPhotonics Corp had an operating margin of -11.06%, compared with the operating margin of -16.9% a year before. The 10-year historical median operating margin of NeoPhotonics Corp is -6.79%. The profitability rank of the company is 2 (out of 10).

At the end of the fiscal year, NeoPhotonics Corp has the cash and cash equivalents of $58.2 million, compared with $78.9 million in the previous year. The long term debt was $50.5 million, compared with $40.6 million in the previous year. NeoPhotonics Corp has a financial strength rank of 5 (out of 10).

At the current stock price of $6.51, NeoPhotonics Corp is traded at 20.8% premium to its historical median P/S valuation band of $5.39. The P/S ratio of the stock is 0.95, while the historical median P/S ratio is 0.78. The stock lost 6.73% during the past 12 months.

For the complete 20-year historical financial data of NPTN, click here.

Armada Hoffler Properties Inc (AHH) President, CEO Louis S Haddad Bought $229,650 of Shares

President, CEO of Armada Hoffler Properties Inc (NYSE:AHH) Louis S Haddad bought 15,000 shares of AHH on 03/05/2019 at an average price of $15.31 a share. The total cost of this purchase was $229,650.

Armada Hoffler Properties Inc is a full service real estate company that develops, constructs & owns institutional grade office, retail & multifamily properties in the Mid-Atlantic United States. It also offers general contracting & development services. Armada Hoffler Properties Inc has a market cap of $760.580 million; its shares were traded at around $15.11 with a P/E ratio of 41.95 and P/S ratio of 3.73. The dividend yield of Armada Hoffler Properties Inc stocks is 5.28%. Armada Hoffler Properties Inc had annual average EBITDA growth of 1.70% over the past five years.

CEO Recent Trades:

President, CEO Louis S Haddad bought 15,000 shares of AHH stock on 03/05/2019 at the average price of $15.31. The price of the stock has decreased by 1.31% since.

For the complete insider trading history of AHH, click here

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Gender equality can lead companies to make more money, Bank of America says

There is one simple solution for companies to make more money, Bank of America Merrill Lynch research shows: Hire more women.

Haim Israel, an equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note to clients Wednesday that gender diversity can boost return on equity, profit, dividends and market cap at a lower risk rate. And companies that focus on diversity trade at a premium to others.

Israel's note comes amid increasing attention around the pay and employment gap between men and women. Several companies, including General Motors and Johnson & Johnson, have taken steps to bridge these disparities. Democratic lawmakers also unveiled the Paycheck Fairness Act earlier this year, which aims to close the gender pay gap. Israel says there is still a lot to do on this front, however.

"The economic gender gap is reducing at a snail's pace and, all being equal, will not close for centuries - 202 years," he said. "Corporate America does not look like Main St. America: the average S&P 500 board seats four men for every woman; just 5% of companies have a woman at the helm, and the S&P 600 small cap index, which reflects more recently established corporations, looks even worse on these statistics."

But the situation is not as dire in Europe. Israel said the percentage of women on corporate boards in Europe is up 200 percent in the past 15 years.

Companies that have seen greater diversity on their boards have also seen lower volatility in earnings and dividends, he said. "Incentives to close the gender gap are evident."

Equality for women could also lead to a massive boost to the economy. Research from McKinsey found gender equality could lead to a global economic boost of between $12 trillion and $28 trillion by 2025.

Women's role in corporations and the world economy is also growing. S&P Global Market Intelligence research shows women are expected to hold $72 trillion of the world's financial assets by 2020.

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Ashoka Buildcon rallies 7% after JV emerges as lowest bidder for railway project

Ashoka Buildcon shares gained 7 percent intraday on Tuesday after the joint venture company emerged as lowest bidder for railway project by Rail Vikas Nigam.

The company has submitted bid to Rail Vikas Nigam Limited in Joint Venture with Stroytech Services LLC, wherein the company is a lead member, for the project.

The project includes construction of roadbed, minor bridges, supply of ballast, installation of track (excluding supply of rails & PSC sleepers & thick web switches), electrical (railway electrification and general electrification), signalling and telecommunication works for doubling of track between Kakrala halt (excluding) and Hadiaya (including) in Ambala Division of Northern Railway, Punjab.

"The company has emerged as the lowest bidder (L-1) for Package 2, the quoted value of which is Rs 443.23 crore, with a completion period of 36 months for package," Ashoka Buildcon said.

At 13:40 hours IST, the stock was quoting at Rs 129.30, up Rs 8.15, or 6.73 percent on the BSE. First Published on Mar 5, 2019 01:40 pm

Generate Retirement Income With A Split Interest Charitable Trust

&l;p&g;Here&a;rsquo;s a little tax magic to augment your retirement income. This works for people with a highly appreciated asset that they would like to convert to a lifetime income and also down the road benefit a favorite charity: The split interest trust.

We most often see this technique used with appreciated real estate, but it would work with any highly appreciated asset.

Let&a;rsquo;s say twenty five years ago you purchased a vacation condo in Aspen that you no longer use. Today you are much happier retiring in the south of France. Your kids don&a;rsquo;t want it. They have their own. Meanwhile, a little extra retirement income would be nice. Taxes, insurance, maintenance, condo fees and other expenses gnaw into your pocketbook. Over the last quarter century the condo has gone way up in value, so the capital gains tax would take a hefty bite out of any sale proceeds. Finally, you have always wanted to endow a chair in economics at your alma mater.

A split interest trust might be just the thing to unlock the value of your condo, avoid capital gains tax, plug the expense drain, generate a substantial charitable tax deduction, provide you with a generous tax sheltered lifetime income, and finally endow that chair at the University.

In this split interest trust you make a completed charitable gift to the trust. It&a;rsquo;s irrevocable. But, you retain a lifetime interest of income for yourself and your spouse while the charity receives a future benefit of the remaining capital at your death. The trust splits interest between current beneficiaries (you and your spouse) and future beneficiaries (the University).

When the trust subsequently sells the condo, because it&a;rsquo;s a charitable trust the sale avoids a capital gains tax. The trust re-invests the proceeds and then makes annual or more frequent income distributions to you. You have a variety of ways you might design the income stream to meet your needs.

Having made a charitable gift, you will reap an income tax deduction based on the calculated value of the future benefit to the University. That future benefit is calculated from an IRS table based on your ages and the amount of your retained lifetime income stream. The older you are and the smaller your retained income the higher your income tax deduction.

If you don&a;rsquo;t use all the income tax deduction in the year you make the gift, you can carry the unused balance forward for many future years. So, most or all of the income you receive may be tax sheltered by the carried forward income tax deduction.

In the right situation it&a;rsquo;s a WIN-WIN-WIN.

Use your imagination to edit the fact pattern in our example. It doesn&a;rsquo;t have to be real estate. It could be your Picasso, antique car, stamp collection or any other highly appreciated asset.

It is CRITICAL that you design the trust and donate the property BEFORE you enter into any agreement to sell the condo. You cannot transfer a sales contract to the trust. And, of course, the ultimate charity must be an IRS qualified charity.

Your financial planner will assist you with design ideas to tailor your gift to meet your exact needs. And most major charities have a planned gifting officer to consult with you. &a;nbsp;But, it goes without saying that you need a highly qualified attorney to draft the document. &a;nbsp;As always, don&a;rsquo;t try this at home.

Hopefully you will live a long time enjoying sunshine and fine wines in Southern France, the balance of the trust will grow even after your income distributions, and ultimately the University will endow a chair in economics in your name.&l;/p&g;

3 Top Mining Stocks to Watch in March

Looking for top stocks is kind of like prospecting for ore: You have to sift through a whole lot of rubble before you find the good stuff. And when it comes to mining stocks, the discoveries come in all shapes and sizes. 

We asked three of our Motley Fool contributors to pick out a mining stock they think is poised to outperform, and they came back with iron miner Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), precious metals streaming company Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A)(NYSE:BRK-B). Yes, you read that right: Berkshire Hathaway. Here's why they think these mining stocks might be right for your portfolio.

Top mining stocks can help you strike it rich. Image source: Getty Images.

Warren Buffett, lithium miner?

Rich Smith (Berkshire Hathaway): Most people know Berkshire Hathaway as an insurance stock. Many people know Berkshire Hathaway is also now a railroad stock ... and an ice cream stock, a diamonds stock, an airplane rental stock, and an owner of many other businesses. But did you know that one day soon, Berkshire Hathaway could also be a mining stock -- and perhaps even one of the world's biggest miners of lithium for electric car batteries?

It's true.

According to a major report on the lithium mining industry released last year, mining company Albemarle produced an estimate 81,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate, making it the world's largest publicly traded producer of the battery raw material. But last month, citing data from a "fund-raising document" it had reviewed, Britain's Financial Times reported that Berkshire Hathaway has begun talks on a project to produce up to 90,000 tons of lithium carbonate from Salton Sea geothermal plants operated by its BHE Renewables business -- and to sell that lithium to Tesla.

Berkshire said no agreements have been signed, and declined media requests to discuss the matter further. Similar ideas to produce lithium from California's Salton Sea were abandoned by another miner recently, but that was said to be due to lack of access to capital. That's not a problem for Berkshire, which boasts nearly $100 billion in cash reserves, according to the most recent data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Assuming this project goes ahead, Berkshire Hathaway could leapfrog all comers to instantly become the world's largest producer of lithium for rechargeable batteries, which would definitely make it a mining stock worth watching.

2019 could be huge for Cleveland-Cliffs

Tyler Crowe (Cleveland-Cliffs): Whenever we talk about factors out of a company's control, they are typically things that are going to hurt the company. But over the next several months and potentially the next year or two, iron ore miner Cleveland-Cliffs could benefit immensely from events completely out of its control.

Late last month, a dam holding back mining tailings burst at one of the operations of Brazilian iron-ore mining giant Vale (NYSE:VALE). It was the second dam collapse in less than five years that caused catastrophic damage and killed several hundred people. As a result, Vale has elected to shutter several of its mines with similar tailings dams. 

While this isn't likely to impact Cleveland-Cliffs directly -- the company only sells iron ore pellets to U.S. steel manufacturers, and Vale does not sell to the U.S. -- there are some knock-on pricing impacts that could help bolster Cleveland-Cliffs' bottom line. 

For one, both Vale and Cleveland-Cliffs sell higher-grade iron ore in the form of fines (iron ore powder) and pellets. Ore with higher iron content has been in much greater demand lately as Chinese steel manufacturers have used higher quality ores to cut down on pollution. As recently as November, iron ore pellets were selling for as high as $150 a ton in China, compared with $75 per ton for 62% iron content fines. What's more, Cleveland-Cliffs is also able to pass along a bit of a price premium for its ore because of much lower transportation costs for domestic steelmakers. The combination of cuts in high-quality ore supplies, increased appetite for pellets worldwide, and Cleveland-Cliffs' ability to cut shipping costs suggests that the company will be able to charge much more for its ore in the coming year. Management mentioned on its most recent earnings call that it expects sales to be in the range of $113 to $118 per long ton, versus $99 per long ton in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Cleveland-Cliffs had already done a commendable job cleaning up its balance sheet, returning to profitability, reinstating a dividend, and starting a share repurchase program. All these efforts would likely lead to a great year for the company. With the added bonus of an iron-ore supply shortage, though, this could be a truly remarkable year. 

CLF data by YCharts.

A stream of riches

John Bromels (Wheaton Precious Metals): When is a miner not a miner? When it's a streaming company. And Wheaton Precious Metals shows why streaming companies can be a great way to get mining into your portfolio without the risks that usually come with the territory.

Mines are expensive to get started, and traditional precious-metals miners often go deep into the red to set up their mines, hoping that the value of the metals they produce will eventually offset those huge up-front costs before the mine is depleted and needs to be shut down. Streaming companies turn that model upside down. They provide funding to the miner in return for a steep discount on the precious metals the mine produces. 

Wheaton used to focus exclusively on silver, but it has since expanded into gold, and now is diversifying its portfolio even further by buying rights from other streaming companies to bring palladium and cobalt into the mix. Why palladium and cobalt? Both are important metals to the automotive industry, with cobalt a major component of batteries and palladium used in emissions control equipment.

These moves should help protect investors if cyclical precious-metal prices plummet. Although streaming companies by the nature of their business model tend to be insulated from such price fluctuations, the market doesn't always give them the benefit of the doubt. That's one reason Wheaton shares are down over the last five years. Today, Wheaton trades at about 35 times earnings, which may sound high, but is actually on the lower end of its historic valuation. That makes March an excellent time to keep an eye on this offbeat mining industry player.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) Files 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended on December 31, 2018

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE:PEB) files its latest 10-K with SEC for the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2018. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is an internally managed hotel investment company organized to acquire and invest in hotel properties. The firm focuses on both branded and independent full-service hotels in the upper upscale segment of the lodging industry. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has a market cap of $4.17 billion; its shares were traded at around $32.02 with a P/E ratio of 114.36 and P/S ratio of 2.88. The dividend yield of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust stocks is 3.55%. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust had annual average EBITDA growth of 16.90% over the past five years.

For the last quarter Pebblebrook Hotel Trust reported a revenue of $235.6 million, compared with the revenue of $179.6 million during the same period a year ago. For the latest fiscal year the company reported a revenue of $828.7 million, an increase of 7.7% from last year. For the last five years Pebblebrook Hotel Trust had an average revenue growth rate of 10.3% a year.

The reported loss per diluted share was 6 cents for the year, compared with the earnings per share of $0.64 in the previous year. The Pebblebrook Hotel Trust had a decent operating margin of 17.57%, compared with the operating margin of 16.44% a year before. The 10-year historical median operating margin of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is 14.05%. The profitability rank of the company is 8 (out of 10).

At the end of the fiscal year, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has the cash and cash equivalents of $83.4 million, compared with $25.4 million in the previous year. The long term debt was $2.7 billion, compared with $885.2 million in the previous year. The interest coverage to the debt is 2.7, which is not a favorable level. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has a financial strength rank of 5 (out of 10).

At the current stock price of $32.02, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is traded at 18.5% discount to its historical median P/S valuation band of $39.29. The P/S ratio of the stock is 2.88, while the historical median P/S ratio is 3.52. The stock lost 0.89% during the past 12 months.

For the complete 20-year historical financial data of PEB, click here.